Frank Bilotto, The Canary In The (AI) Coal Mine

The Warning to Publishers Who Are Signing Away Their Future

by Paul Gerbino

Frank Bilotto has become one of the most popular authors on the CLI Content Licensing Brief. In fact, so popular, I was hearing from people at conferences in Europe about how much they enjoyed Frank’s musings. Those musings are the focus of this article and a NotebookLM generated podcast.

Frank has written eleven articles in 2024 exploring the evolving landscape of content licensing, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on publishers. In these articles, Frank has discussed the challenges AI poses to traditional revenue models, emphasizing the need for publishers to proactively adapt and negotiate. If you know Frank, these articles are written from his gut as well as from his head. He only writes articles when he has something to say, and this year he said a lot.

As we closed out 2024, and now entering 2025, I am reminded of the first lines of Frank’s last 2024 article when he writes “I think it makes sense to look ahead by looking back.” With those immortal words, I began to look back at Frank’s thoughts in 2024 to help think about 2025. At the same time I was doing this, I received a great article from Ricky Sutton where he used NotebookLM to create a podcast around government documents he uploaded. The podcast was good and that gave me an idea, ‘what type of podcast can AI create using Frank’s eleven articles. The following 14 minute podcast is the result.

(PODCAST generated by NotebookLM)

For those who would rather read, this article is for you.

In Frank’s opinion, and in mine, the publishing industry stands at a precipice. Just as the music industry was blindsided by the digital disruption of Napster, publishers now face the insatiable appetite of Artificial Intelligence. This stark warning comes from Frank, a seasoned content licensing lawyer, whose insights paint a grim picture for the future of publishing.

Bilotto has spent the past year pulling the fire alarm, warning publishers about the dangers of licensing their content to AI developers. He argues that, lured by short-term profits, publishers are unwittingly feeding a beast that could ultimately devour them.

The core of Bilotto’s argument rests on two key observations:

  1. AI’s insatiable hunger for data: AI engines, like ChatGPT, are data-hungry behemoths. Publishers, often for a pittance, are supplying the fuel. This, Bilotto argues, is akin to record labels watching their entire catalogs being scraped and shared by users of Napster—which ultimately decimated the music industry.
  1. The rise of AI-generated content: Bilotto predicts that AI will soon generate high-quality content at a fraction of the cost of traditional publishing. This could further erode publishers’ revenue streams and potentially render them obsolete.

This scenario is already unfolding in the news industry. Giants like Hearst and the Associated Press have struck deals with AI companies, granting them access to vast troves of articles to be used as data. Bilotto warns that the resulting flood of inexpensive AI-generated news content will cannibalize smaller news and will soon be publishing high quality content at a fraction of the cost paid by traditional publishers. Sooner than anyone expects, traditional publishers will see their audience and revenues shrink. As fast as you can say, “All the news that’s fit to print”, the entire publishing world will transform just like the record business did. If they’re not proactive in addressing the long term implications of AI’s impact on their current business models, don’t be surprised if today’s biggest publishers go the way of Tower Records. And if you think that won’t happen, take a look at Trending Now, an AI-powered news publication. It is happening now!

The threat, however, extends far beyond news. Bilotto believes that all publishers, from scientific journals to literary magazines, face the same existential crisis. He urges them to learn from the music industry’s mistakes and take control of their destiny before it’s too late.

Two Paths Forward

Bilotto proposes two potential paths forward:

  1. Form a grand alliance: Small and mid-size publishers, he argues, should band together and leverage their collective bargaining power to negotiate favorable licensing deals with AI companies. This would allow them to command a higher price for their content and potentially retain some control over its use.
  1. Embrace AI themselves: Instead of feeding the AI beast, Bilotto suggests that publishers should become the beast themselves. He advocates for publishers to develop their own in-house AI capabilities, allowing them to generate new content, create innovative products, and maintain control over their intellectual property.

And in case you did not have the chance to read Frank’s musings, here is a taste with links to the stories:

Lawyers, Courts and Deals, Oh My! – January 3, 2024

Frank Bilotto discusses the legal and financial implications of AI utilizing copyrighted material, focusing on the New York Times’ lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft. He analyzes this case alongside others like Planner 5D vs. Facebook, Thomson Reuters vs. ROSS Intelligence, and Getty Images vs. Stability AI, highlighting the central question of whether AI’s use of copyrighted material constitutes fair use or copyright infringement. Bilotto emphasizes the potential impact of these cases on the publishing industry, advocating for publishers to proactively negotiate deals with AI companies that ensure fair compensation for content usage and address long-term financial considerations in the evolving landscape of AI-generated content.

Is AI The Friendly Skies for Publishers? A View From 34,000 Feet, (Literally) – February 13, 2024

Frank explores the complex relationship between publishers and AI, outlining both the risks and rewards. While acknowledging potential threats like copyright infringement, brand damage, and revenue loss, he encourages publishers to strategically engage with AI to expand content reach and profit. Bilotto emphasizes careful negotiation of agreements with AI developers, prioritizing intellectual property protection, quality control, and fair compensation through various models like licensing fees, revenue sharing, and subscriptions. He stresses the importance of transparency, trust, and long-term collaboration to ensure a mutually beneficial partnership in the evolving landscape of AI-driven content creation and distribution.

Unnamed Source Reveals Risks of Licensing Medical Content – March 13, 2024

Frank argues against the hesitancy of some medical publishers to license their content, refuting common concerns and highlighting the benefits. He dismisses the fear of revenue loss (“cannibalization”) as a myth, citing historical data and successful examples of increased revenue through broader distribution. While acknowledging concerns about quality control, intellectual property rights, and regulatory compliance, Bilotto emphasizes that these risks can be mitigated through careful partner selection and robust licensing agreements. He ultimately encourages medical publishers to embrace third-party licensing to expand content reach, generate new revenue streams, enhance brand visibility, and improve patient outcomes.

AI: “If You Don’t Want to Join ‘em, Here’s How to Beat ‘em.” – March 26, 2024

Frank Bilotto outlines legal and technical strategies to protect website content from unauthorized use by AI. Legally, he advises detailed terms and conditions that explicitly prohibit scraping and automated data collection, emphasizing clear language and user consent. Technically, he suggests implementing rate limiting, CAPTCHA challenges, IP blocking, content security policies, and dynamic content loading to deter AI from accessing and scraping content. While acknowledging the difficulty of complete prevention, Bilotto emphasizes the importance of proactive monitoring and enforcement to protect website content from AI exploitation, ultimately questioning whether fighting AI is a more viable strategy than collaborating with it.

Masters of Licensing – April 9, 2024

Frank Bilotto uses the Masters Tournament as an analogy to illustrate the benefits of licensing intellectual property for publishers. He compares the exclusivity and brand control of the Masters to how publishers can strategically license their content while maintaining a prestigious image and protecting their brand. He emphasizes the financial gains possible through licensing, likening it to how the Masters generates substantial revenue for Augusta National. Bilotto also highlights the global reach and quality standards associated with both the Masters and licensed intellectual property, encouraging publishers to consider licensing as a way to expand their audience and maximize their content’s potential, while drawing parallels between the engagement strategies and legal protections employed by both.

AI and Content Licensing: A Paradigm Shift or Earthquake? – May 22, 2024

Frank Bilotto analyzes the implications of Dotdash Meredith’s partnership with OpenAI, suggesting it signifies a potential shift in the publishing industry towards AI dominance. He critiques the deal’s focus on attribution and links, arguing that AI-generated content is becoming the primary source of information, rendering those aspects meaningless. Instead, Bilotto emphasizes the importance of content shelf life and monetary compensation in licensing agreements with AI companies. He criticizes publishers for missing the opportunity to leverage AI for their own content creation and distribution, predicting the emergence of AI-generated articles and books in the future.

Marlon Brando’s Advice to Small and Midsize Publishers – June 4, 2024

Frank Bilotto warns small and mid-sized publishers about the threat of AI to their future, urging them to form alliances to increase their leverage and content value. He criticizes major publishers for licensing their content to AI companies for short-term gains, arguing that this strengthens AI and diminishes the need for smaller publishers. Bilotto advocates for a collaborative approach, suggesting that an alliance of smaller publishers could negotiate better deals with AI companies or even license AI technology themselves to create their own platforms. He emphasizes the urgency of this action, stating that without collaboration, smaller publishers risk becoming obsolete in the face of AI dominance.

Publishers Should Have Seen It Coming – June 19, 2024

Frank Bilotto, using Napster as an example, argues that publishers should have anticipated and proactively addressed the issue of AI scraping content, as it’s a recurring problem with roots in earlier internet practices. He criticizes publishers for their inaction against past scraping incidents, highlighting that they missed opportunities to legally challenge and prevent such practices. Bilotto draws parallels between Napster’s disruption of the music industry and the potential for AI to similarly disrupt publishing, emphasizing the need for publishers to learn from the music industry’s mistakes and take decisive action to protect their content and revenue streams.

Collective Management Organizations’ Conundrum: Navigating the Digital Landscape – September 25, 2024

This article explores the role of Collective Management Organizations (CMOs) in the evolving publishing landscape, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities they face. CMOs act as intermediaries between content creators and users, facilitating licensing and distribution. However, they need to address concerns regarding transparency in royalty calculations and distribution to build trust with publishers. The authors advocate for CMOs to embrace new technologies like blockchain for accurate usage tracking and royalty payments. They also emphasize the benefits of collective licensing, particularly for small and mid-sized publishers, in negotiating better terms, expanding market reach, and ensuring fair compensation in the face of new challenges like AI.

The Existential Threat to Publishers – October 22, 2024

Frank Bilotto warns publishers about the existential threat posed by AI companies who are licensing their content with the long-term goal of replacing them as the major content producers. He argues that publishers, by providing their content to AI companies, are inadvertently contributing to their own demise. Instead, he urges publishers to develop their own AI technologies and generate their own AI content to maintain control, create new revenue streams, and ensure their long-term survival in the evolving digital landscape. He outlines a nine-point plan detailing the advantages of this approach, emphasizing the need for publishers to learn from past mistakes and take proactive steps to secure their future.

CLI Licensing Roundtable Round Up – December 17, 2024

Frank Bilotto reflects on the Content Licensing Institute’s Executive Roundtable, highlighting key takeaways from discussions on AI’s impact on publishing. Participants debated AI’s role, with some viewing it as a threat and others as an opportunity. The roundtable explored licensing models, copyright infringement concerns, and the need for greater transparency in royalty reporting. Bilotto emphasizes the importance of publishers strategically managing their content as a valuable asset in the evolving digital landscape, advocating for proactive measures to protect and monetize it effectively. He concludes with a holiday message and expresses Content Licensing Institute’s commitment to addressing key licensing issues in the coming year.


I would be remiss if I did not include my favorite from 2023:

Confessions of a Content Licensing Lawyer – October 24, 2023

Frank Bilotto highlights the challenges faced by publishers in the age of generative AI. Traditionally, content licensing involved negotiating agreements to ensure fair payment and controlled distribution of content used by individuals. However, AI disrupts this model by ingesting entire archives, making it difficult to track and control usage, potentially leading to underpayment and unauthorized distribution. Bilotto emphasizes the need for new licensing agreements with specific limitations on AI usage to protect publishers’ rights and revenue streams, while acknowledging the evolving nature of AI and the need for publishers to adapt to these technologies to avoid exploitation and potential bankruptcy.

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